Prospects of Korean Peninsula in 2019: N. Korea situations, N. Korea-U.S. nuclear negotiations and inter-Korean relations
- 5 years ago
Major changes have taken place on the Korean Peninusla in 2018, a dialogue momentum settling in among the two Koreas and the U.S.
While the two Koreas have expanded their cooperation to a variety of fields, the hype for denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S. fizzled out in recent months.
It may have, but experts say 2019 will be another important year,... in which these countries will have to agree on the specifics of how to carry out the things they agreed on in 2018.
Our Oh Jung-hee takes a look ahead.
2019 is a critical year of preparation for North Korea.
That... as the regime celebrates the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party's establishment in the year after, 2020,... while wrapping up its five-year economic development plan.
But despite the regime's domestic efforts for economic growth,... a set of strict sanctions by the UN and individual nations have hindered key industries in the regime.
North Korea's GDP shrank three-point-five percent on-year in 2017, according to South Korea's central bank,... and pundits say the regime won't be able to avoid a minus growth next year as well.
"North Korea's industrial production has been affected severely by sanctions on imports. Also, export-related industries like anthracite, iron ore and fisheries may go through a recession. Meanwhile, foreign currency is being depleted in the regime... which will influence exchange rates and prices."
That's why sanctions relief is ever more crucial for Pyeongyang.
But that doesn't seem to be feasible, at least now,... as nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. have been on a deadlock since the Singapore summit in June.
In September, North Korea vowed to invite international experts over to witness the dismantlement of its Dongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch pad.
The regime also said it can dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear test site, but demanded reciprocal measures from Washington.
That's where negotiations stalled -- as Washington was not willing to lift any sanction unless the North took concrete steps towards its complete denuclearization.
"North Korea and the U.S. both are willing to talk to each other, so I believe there will be meaningful results from their second summit next year. But their negotiations will gain speed once the U.S. is ready to offer something in return."
And South Korea's role as mediator between the two carries on to the new year.
Seoul is aiming at creating a virtuous cycle between North Korea-U.S. nuclear negotiations and inter-Korean cooperation.
In 2018, the two Koreas kick-started cooperation in a range of fields... from lowering military tension to economic and humanitarian issues,... and experts say, it's now time for Seoul to put more weight on denuclearization when communicating with the North.
In regards to Kim Jong-un's visit to the South,... experts say such event seems possible, reading from the letter Kim sent to President Moon Jae-in over the
While the two Koreas have expanded their cooperation to a variety of fields, the hype for denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S. fizzled out in recent months.
It may have, but experts say 2019 will be another important year,... in which these countries will have to agree on the specifics of how to carry out the things they agreed on in 2018.
Our Oh Jung-hee takes a look ahead.
2019 is a critical year of preparation for North Korea.
That... as the regime celebrates the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party's establishment in the year after, 2020,... while wrapping up its five-year economic development plan.
But despite the regime's domestic efforts for economic growth,... a set of strict sanctions by the UN and individual nations have hindered key industries in the regime.
North Korea's GDP shrank three-point-five percent on-year in 2017, according to South Korea's central bank,... and pundits say the regime won't be able to avoid a minus growth next year as well.
"North Korea's industrial production has been affected severely by sanctions on imports. Also, export-related industries like anthracite, iron ore and fisheries may go through a recession. Meanwhile, foreign currency is being depleted in the regime... which will influence exchange rates and prices."
That's why sanctions relief is ever more crucial for Pyeongyang.
But that doesn't seem to be feasible, at least now,... as nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. have been on a deadlock since the Singapore summit in June.
In September, North Korea vowed to invite international experts over to witness the dismantlement of its Dongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch pad.
The regime also said it can dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear test site, but demanded reciprocal measures from Washington.
That's where negotiations stalled -- as Washington was not willing to lift any sanction unless the North took concrete steps towards its complete denuclearization.
"North Korea and the U.S. both are willing to talk to each other, so I believe there will be meaningful results from their second summit next year. But their negotiations will gain speed once the U.S. is ready to offer something in return."
And South Korea's role as mediator between the two carries on to the new year.
Seoul is aiming at creating a virtuous cycle between North Korea-U.S. nuclear negotiations and inter-Korean cooperation.
In 2018, the two Koreas kick-started cooperation in a range of fields... from lowering military tension to economic and humanitarian issues,... and experts say, it's now time for Seoul to put more weight on denuclearization when communicating with the North.
In regards to Kim Jong-un's visit to the South,... experts say such event seems possible, reading from the letter Kim sent to President Moon Jae-in over the