Global fertility rates | The Economist
- 5 years ago
The spread of modernity is bringing fertility rates down to replacement level for most of the world. That is a good thing. Added to www.audiovideo.economist.com in October 2009
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In 1950 the world's population was around 2.5 billion. It more than doubled over the next 50 years.
In the mid-80s the growth rate slowed. By 2050 the world's population is expected to stabilize at around 9 billion.
According to the UN's population division, between 2010 and 2015, around half of the world's people will live in countries with fertility rates of no more than 2.1. This is the replacement level of fertility which causes a country's population growth rate to slow down and eventually to stabilize.
As poor countries grow richer fertility rates decline. in 1950 the average Chinese woman had 6.5 children and the average income per person in China was $418 a year. The fertility rate declined slowly through the 1950s and 60s but remained about five children per woman into the early 1970s. Then China's government started forcing its citizens to have fewer children and the rate has fallen sharply. By 1993 it had fallen below replacement level. Since then the average annual income per person has soared from $1800 to $5000 in 2007.
Iran's fertility rate in 1950 was just over seven. Even higher than China's, with an average income per person of $3,200, it was also wealthier. The fertility rate remained relatively constant during the 1950s and early 60s. In the mid-60s the Shar pioneered one of the world's first family planning programs. Birth rates fell and income rose. That policy was abolished by the Islamic revolutionaries who took over the country in 1979. Fertility rates rose above 6 in 1984. By 2006 rates had fallen to 1.9 and to 1.5 in Tehran. In 1976 only 10% of rural women between the ages of 20 and 24 were literate. Today 91% are educated. Women are more likely to work, demand contraception, and less likely to have large families.
South Korea had a fertility rate of four and an average annual income per person of just over a $1000 in 1950. Then came a decade of war and stagnation during which the birth rate shot upward before falling sharply in the 1960s as the country grew richer and more industrial. Its fertility rate today is well below replacement level and its income per person is high even by rich world standards.
As fertility rates in the developing world fall, those in much of the rich world, which have long been below replacement level, are starting to rise. In 1950 Frances fertility rate was below 3 and its income nearly $6600 dollars per person. Its fertility rate rose slightly in the 1960s and fell steadily for the rest of the century, dropping below replacement level in 1975. This decade however the rate has an inch back toward replacement level and in 2007 was at 1.9
Collectively the world's fertility rate has declined as it's grown richer. During the mid-century baby boom, the West enjoyed its Goldilocks era when fertility rates and median ages were just right.
Now it's the turn of Asia and Latin America.
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In 1950 the world's population was around 2.5 billion. It more than doubled over the next 50 years.
In the mid-80s the growth rate slowed. By 2050 the world's population is expected to stabilize at around 9 billion.
According to the UN's population division, between 2010 and 2015, around half of the world's people will live in countries with fertility rates of no more than 2.1. This is the replacement level of fertility which causes a country's population growth rate to slow down and eventually to stabilize.
As poor countries grow richer fertility rates decline. in 1950 the average Chinese woman had 6.5 children and the average income per person in China was $418 a year. The fertility rate declined slowly through the 1950s and 60s but remained about five children per woman into the early 1970s. Then China's government started forcing its citizens to have fewer children and the rate has fallen sharply. By 1993 it had fallen below replacement level. Since then the average annual income per person has soared from $1800 to $5000 in 2007.
Iran's fertility rate in 1950 was just over seven. Even higher than China's, with an average income per person of $3,200, it was also wealthier. The fertility rate remained relatively constant during the 1950s and early 60s. In the mid-60s the Shar pioneered one of the world's first family planning programs. Birth rates fell and income rose. That policy was abolished by the Islamic revolutionaries who took over the country in 1979. Fertility rates rose above 6 in 1984. By 2006 rates had fallen to 1.9 and to 1.5 in Tehran. In 1976 only 10% of rural women between the ages of 20 and 24 were literate. Today 91% are educated. Women are more likely to work, demand contraception, and less likely to have large families.
South Korea had a fertility rate of four and an average annual income per person of just over a $1000 in 1950. Then came a decade of war and stagnation during which the birth rate shot upward before falling sharply in the 1960s as the country grew richer and more industrial. Its fertility rate today is well below replacement level and its income per person is high even by rich world standards.
As fertility rates in the developing world fall, those in much of the rich world, which have long been below replacement level, are starting to rise. In 1950 Frances fertility rate was below 3 and its income nearly $6600 dollars per person. Its fertility rate rose slightly in the 1960s and fell steadily for the rest of the century, dropping below replacement level in 1975. This decade however the rate has an inch back toward replacement level and in 2007 was at 1.9
Collectively the world's fertility rate has declined as it's grown richer. During the mid-century baby boom, the West enjoyed its Goldilocks era when fertility rates and median ages were just right.
Now it's the turn of Asia and Latin America.
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