Republican Plan Would Raise Taxes on Millions
Nearly half of all middle-class families would pay more in taxes in 2026 than they would under current rules if the proposed House tax bill became law,
and about one-third would pay more in 2018, according to a New York Times analysis, a striking finding for a bill promoted as a middle-class tax cut.
The preliminary Times analysis found that, in 2018, the plan would cut taxes for about 68 percent of families in the middle class, broadly defined as those earning between two-thirds
and twice the median household income, or between about $50,000 and $160,000 per year for a family of three.
PERCENTAGE TAX INCREASE
The bill is devised to allow millions of Americans to simplify their tax returns — to file, as Republican leaders put it, “on a postcard.” The
plan would most likely simplify taxes for some taxpayers, who would choose to take advantage of the plan’s more generous standard deduction.
One such analysis, from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, found
that 8 percent of middle-income earners would pay more in 2018 — and 21 percent in 2027 — with upper-middle-class taxpayers more likely to see their taxes rise.
Of the roughly 6.5 million middle-class families whose taxes would rise in 2018 under the bill, about 800,000
took advantage of the medical expense provision, deducting more than $17,000 on average from their taxes.
But the analysis suggests that among lower- and middle-class families, the greatest benefits of the
bill flow to those taxpayers who already file simple returns and do not itemize their taxes.