This year could be a bumper year for stocks. That’s because 2015 is the third year of President Barack Obama’s second term, and stocks typically outperform in a presidency’s third year.
In the third year of Obama’s first term, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5 and a half per cent. For George W Bush, the Dow rose 25 per cent in the third year of his first term, and 6 per cent in the third year of his second term.
Why is the third-year of a president’s term good for stocks? Lame duck presidents don’t want to rock the boat too much before an election, so they tend to let business be business.
Republican or Democrat -- it doesn’t seem to matter who’s in office. Third years tend to be good for the Dow.
The Dow returned 4.19% in the third year of Jimmy Carter’s presidency is 1979; 20.7% in the third year of Ronald Reagan’s first term in 1983, and 2.26% in the third year of his second term in 1987; 20.32% in the third year of George H.W. Bush’s presidency in 1991; 33.45% in the third year of Bill Clinton’s first term in 1995 and 25.22% in the third year of his second term in 1999; the 25.32% in the third year of George W Bush’s first term in 2003 and 6.43% in the third year of his second term in 2007.
Can Obama keep it up for 2015? If he can, stock investors will be cashing in.
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